The pollsters at Gallup, who have lots of historical data to compare things to, report today that "Barack Obama averaged 46.7% job approval in his ninth quarter in office, slightly above his seventh- and eighth-quarter averages but still the third lowest of his presidency."
And, Gallup adds:
"Obama's ninth-quarter average ranks in the lower range for elected presidents, better than the averages for Ronald Reagan (38.8 percent) and Jimmy Carter (41.2 percent) and about the same as Bill Clinton's (45.7 percent). Richard Nixon is the other elected president with a ninth-quarter average below 50%. The other presidents were all above 60%, including the elder George Bush, who averaged 82.7 percent approval in the quarter that included the United States' victory in the 1991 Persian Gulf War against Iraq."
It will be important to watch, Gallup says, the president's approval rating in his current (10th) quarter in office:
"Reagan and Clinton, both of whom had ninth-quarter averages similar to or lower than Obama's, showed significant improvement in their 10th quarter and were re-elected the following year. Carter, meanwhile, saw a sharp drop of roughly 10 points in his average approval rating during the 1979 energy crisis, and was defeated for a second term in 1980."