No Election Day Surprises Predicts UK Pol

Nov 8, 2011

It’s one last day of campaigning for incumbent Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear, Republican Senate President David Williams and Independent Gatewood Galbraith.  Ernie Yanarella, chair of the University of Kentucky political science department, says Galbraith may receive more votes than first anticipated.  But he doesn’t expect Galbraith to finish better than third.

“He’s a very difficult person to understand ideologically, and as a result, just don’t think that he’s going to be able to benefit from some ground swell of disaffected, alienated, voters,” said Yanarella.

Yanarella agrees with pre-election polling which shows Beshear winning the gubernatorial contest handily.  He says the governor has run a ‘near perfect campaign’ while David Williams has struggled.

Yanarella says the governor didn’t make any significant mistakes during the campaign.

 “You know when you run a campaign as well as Beshear and Abramson have, and when you basically define yourself first, it’s an awful difficult road to hoe for someone to try to unseat a sitting governor,” said Yanarella.

Election officials say more people will avoid polling places than vote. The projected turnout is only about a quarter of registered voters.  Yanarella says low numbers favor incumbent Governor Beshear.  And Yanarella notes the election still comes down to the state’s political makeup, which features more registered democrats than republicans.