Not a whole lot is certain about Weinergate, at least not for anyone not directly involved.
A few things do seem safe to say, however. One, Rep. Anthony Weiner's strategy of refusing to talk further about the crotch shot that was sent from his Twitter account to a college student (Weiner says his account was hacked) will only get us news media types more worked up.
Some journalists will see his refusal to answer more questions as a challenge to stay on the story, if only to show the New York Democrat and everyone else that they won't be easily dissuaded.
Many a journalist has actually seen the alternative work. That's where the subject of a story talks so much and answers every question asked by journalists so patiently and clearly, the reporters actually run out of queries and nearly beg to end the news conference themselves.
Two, Weiner said he didn't want to be distracted anymore from the important work he must do. Too late for that. Or maybe it's more accurate to say that while he may not be distracted, others will.
If and when he shows up on cable shows in the next days and weeks, he may be talking the debt-ceiling but many people watching and listening to him will be thinking crotch shot.
Other than that, it's more heat than light at this point.